@theMarket: Markets Await the InaugurationBy Bill Schmick,
02:16PM / Friday, January 17, 2025 | |
"Day One" arrives on Monday and investors are waiting with bated breath to hear what and how the new administration will handle the myriad problems that beset the nation. No one knows how that day will go, and the stock market reflects that.
Stocks are up since the beginning of the year but not by much. Granted the total gains for the first five days of January were positive and that is a good sign for those who take stock in those kinds of portents. Normally if the S&P 500 Index finishes with gains by the close of the fifth day of the year (and it did), the "rule of the first five days" says a gain for the entire year is likely.
Over 0 Comments
Read More >> |
@theMarket: Markets Falter to Start the Yearby Bill Schmick,
02:09PM / Friday, January 03, 2025 | |
After several days of profit-taking, stocks tried to stage a recovery in the first two days of the new year with varying success. Traders are cautious and fear that there may be more downside to come.
While Santa made at best a brief appearance this year as far as the expected rally was concerned, the damage was not all that great. The S&P 500 Index suffered a loss of less than 3 percent from its all-time high while NASDAQ was hit harder.
The dollar and bond yields continued to climb as foreign currencies fell against the dollar in preparation for the incoming administration's expected new tariff regime. Most overseas markets vastly underperformed 0 Comments
Read More >> |
@theMarket: Wall Street Sees Another Positive Year AheadBy Bill Schmick,
04:11PM / Friday, December 27, 2024 | |
It is a time when financial strategists and economic experts forecast what will happen in the coming year. Since most of Wall Street is trying to sell you something, prepare for a positive outlook from most firms.
On practically the same date last year, I wrote that strategists were predicting the 2024 S&P 500 Index targets ranged from 4,200 to 5,500. Given that over a long period, the S&P 500 has delivered around 10.13 percent yearly returns since 1957, and 9.19 percent over the last 150 years, forecasts that mimic those returns should be ignored.
Those forecasts told me the authors had no idea where the market was going. As such, they just 0 Comments
Read More >> |
@theMarket: Fed Backs Away from More Interest Rate CutsBy Bill Schmick,
10:45AM / Saturday, December 21, 2024 | |
The Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates again on Wednesday and reduced the number of interest rate cuts next year. That decision dismayed investors and triggered a run for the exits in the stock market. Will this government Grinch decision ruin the chances of a Santa Claus rally?
Wall Street labeled the central bank move a "hawkish cut." Prior to the meeting, most investors were expecting that the Fed would pause after this month's rate cut of 25 basis points. Given that events unfolded as expected, why did the Dow lose over 1,000 points in two hours?
Inflation is the short answer. You may recall in last week's column I 0 Comments
Read More >> |
@theMarket: Stocks Shrug Off Rising InflationBy Bill Schmick,
11:40AM / Saturday, December 14, 2024 | |
New highs continue as equities ignore the inflation data and focus instead on the prospects of the next administration. Wall Street consensus is that the upside in stocks should continue at least until the new year.
As a contrarian investor, I often disagree with the consensus view but not this time. Last week I explained how global money flows usually support the markets and create the Santa Claus rally. This period of good cheer and higher prices should extend into mid-January.
This week, the most recent data on inflation confirmed my fears that we have not seen a bottom in inflation. Back in September, I predicted that inflation would begin to rise again, 0 Comments
Read More >> |
|
|
MEMBER SIGN IN
